Why is Toyota Simulating Mt. Fuji Eruptions?!

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Where does Mount Fuji erupt from?

While most would say “the summit,” the answer is not so simple. Several old craters exist near the volcano’s base, meaning a future eruption could occur surprisingly close to residential areas.

There is no telling where an eruption will come from. What’s more, past eruption cycles suggest that Mt. Fuji could blow at any moment. This makes planning evacuation scenarios all the more important.

Susono City in Shizuoka Prefecture, where the construction of Woven City is underway, has projected as many as 31 potential lava flow patterns. In one case, lava was expected to take a day to reach the populous Suyama district; a re-examination revealed that, for some areas, the time could be as little as two hours.

After hearing about a department working to unravel this startling data and better inform residents, we visited the #toyota Higashi-Fuji Technical Center.

The group that greeted us included a man wearing camouflage face paint and a mascot that looks like Mt. Fuji crossed with a gyoza dumpling... all of which will be explained in good time.

Last March, the Fuji hazard map was updated for the first time in 17 years, compelling #susonocity, located at the foot of the mountain, to revise its regional evacuation plan. In doing so, technology developed by #toyota proved useful.

Kenichi Kitahama, Project General Manager, R-Frontier Division, Frontier Research Center.

Susono faces ongoing challenges that it has been unable to resolve. We began working with the city because we felt that Toyota’s expertise could help find solutions.

Toyota has all kinds of simulation technology, of which multi-agent simulation was particularly useful. We have been using this technology to study how much the spread of autonomous driving could alleviate traffic congestion.

This joint public-private planning effort began by visualizing traffic congestion during evacuations. It was at this point that “Colonel Magma” chimed in. The mystery of his camouflage makeup will be cleared up later in the article, but he is in fact a #susonocity employee.

Yasuo Yamamoto, Crisis Management Coordination Supervisor, #susonocity Hall

Information and communications technology is a weak spot for #susonocity, so we were very grateful when #toyota offered to help us formulate an evacuation plan. What’s more, #toyota also has connections with insurance companies and research organizations, enabling far-reaching analysis. I think we would have struggled on our own.

“At first, I was skeptical about how useful they would be,” says Colonel Magma with a smile, referring to Toyota’s simulations. Despite these misgivings, the ongoing efforts brought tangible results. Susono City’s mayor also shared the following comment.

Harukaze Murata, #susonocity Mayor

The technology and know-how that #toyota provided enabled us to analyze data and visualize outcomes through 3D simulations, which would have been difficult by ourselves.

We incorporated the results into our Fuji volcano evacuation drills and disaster prevention classes for elementary and junior high schools, helping to raise awareness among residents. The project also boosted the skills of city employees engaged in data-driven policymaking.

Here was an example of a carmaker’s unique expertise being used for the benefit of the local area. And yet, there was also a big problem.

A surprising lack of interest

Besides the local residents, the Suyama district is also dotted with vacation homes. This diverse population, along with the various potential lava flow lines, poses a challenge when figuring out evacuation methods.

Toyota’s researchers set out to grasp the situation on the ground by speaking with the community to assist data analysis—a genchi genbutsu approach. In doing so, however, they ran into an unexpected hurdle.

Kitahama

We went to the heads of the district and the volunteer disaster prevention team, excited to show them the traffic congestion simulations, but the response was underwhelming. (Laughs)

The things we thought were great made no impression. Instead, they pointed to another problem, that the emergency radio did not reach some places.

We realized that what the residents really want to know is not simulations for the entire city of Susono, but what will happen to the area where they live.

Rather than focusing on themselves, the team needed to adopt the “YOU perspective.”

Kota Sata, Group Manager, R-Frontier Division, Frontier Research Center.

From there, we surveyed every household to learn about their individual circumstances.

This is because evacuation times would vary depending on the makeup of each family, such as if both parents are out working, or there are seniors and infants. The number of cars also differs between families.

We aggregated the data from all households and re-ran the simulation time and again, asking residents to review the results. Repeating this cycle improved our accuracy.

Highly accurate data about the places they live—now this sparked resident engagement.

Does an eruption mean the end?

Additional attitude surveys at seniors’ salons and junior high schools revealed a startling truth. The perception among elderly residents was that “Mt. Fuji would surely not erupt.” At the same time, if it did erupt, many were resigned to this being “the end.”

These findings led the team to change tack. The new strategy was to run disaster prevention classes for children in the hope that they would encourage grandparents to flee.

Naomi Akimoto, Assistant Manager, R-Frontier Division, Frontier Research Center

Many elementary and junior high students imagine Mt. Fuji blowing its top, but if an eruption occurred on the Yamanashi side, far from Shizuoka, the lava won’t flow this way.

In Susono alone, the lava can take 31 potential routes with rivers and valley channels being the fastest while other lines are slower. Although the city’s schools run disaster drills in preparation for an earthquake, even the teachers were not well informed about Fuji eruptions.

An eruption would not mean “the end.” Escape is possible.

Until now, the city was not aware that residents were resigned to their fate. This made joint public-private disaster prevention classes all the more important. Rather than trying to scare people, the aim is to explain volcanoes and lava in a fun way.

To spark interest among children, the eye-catching Colonel Magma is also joined by Susono City’s mascot, Susonon.

Currently, the city informs residents of evacuation methods for four main eruption patterns. Instead of going into excessive detail, the information makes it easy for individuals to visualize their evacuation steps.

Toyota places great value on acting for the benefit of “someone other than yourself,” and on being a “best-in-town” carmaker that focuses on individual communities rather than aiming for world #1.

The #partnership with #susonocity to improve #safety for the local community certainly forms part of this approach. Moving forward, the ongoing joint research efforts will also incorporate fieldwork aimed at further boosting the region’s #safety.